Midwest Risk Assessments

On December 30th, 2025, a quiet stretch of Kentucky farmland turned into a scene that every American has seen too many times. A CSX freight train—thirty‑one cars long—left the rails near Trenton, and within minutes the calm morning was replaced by fire, toxic smoke, and a shelter‑in‑place order that swept across the county. One of the derailed cars carried molten sulfur. When it ruptured, the chemical ignited, sending a plume into the sky that forced families to seal their homes, shut down their furnaces, and wait for word on whether the air outside was safe to breathe. Roads shut down. U.S. 41 was blocked. Emergency crews flooded the area. And yet, by some stroke of luck, no one was injured. But luck is not a plan, and this derailment was not an anomaly. It was the latest entry in a long list of American train wrecks that have become so common they barely make national news unless something explodes.

Derailments happen for reasons everyone knows but few want to confront. The rail system is old—older than most of the towns it runs through. Tracks warp, ties rot, switches fail, and maintenance crews are stretched thin across thousands of miles of steel that were never designed for the weight and length of modern freight trains. Today’s trains can run two miles long, hauling chemicals, fuels, and industrial cargo that turn a simple mechanical failure into a regional emergency. Bearings overheat. Wheels crack. Human beings make mistakes. Regulations lag behind reality. And the cargo keeps moving, day after day, through small towns, suburbs, and rural counties that have no say in what rolls past their homes.

Most people never think about what a derailment would mean for them until the sirens start. But if it happens in your area, the impact is immediate and personal. You may be told to stay inside, seal your windows, and shut down your HVAC system to avoid pulling toxic air into your home. You may be ordered to evacuate with only minutes to decide what to grab. Roads can close without warning. Fires can burn for hours. And if the chemical involved is reactive, explosive, or produces dangerous gases, the situation can escalate faster than anyone expects. Even after the flames die down, the aftermath lingers. Soil can be contaminated. Waterways can be affected. Cleanup can take months. Life doesn’t snap back to normal just because the news cycle moves on.

And here’s the part most Michiganders don’t realize: what happened in Kentucky could just as easily happen here. Michigan is laced with rail lines that cut through towns, neighborhoods, and industrial corridors. Trains carrying hazardous materials run through Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Holland, Kalamazoo, and right through the small towns of West Michigan where people assume nothing dangerous ever happens. Many of these lines run close to rivers, wetlands, and residential areas. A derailment in the wrong spot could shut down a major highway, contaminate a watershed, or force entire neighborhoods to shelter in place. In winter, when homes are sealed tight and furnaces run nonstop, a chemical plume becomes even more dangerous. And in rural areas, where volunteer fire departments are the first line of defense, response times stretch and the margin for error shrinks.

The Kentucky derailment is not a distant story. It’s a preview. It’s a reminder that the same aging infrastructure, the same long freight trains, and the same hazardous cargo move through Michigan every single day. It’s a warning that normal can vanish in an instant, and the only thing that determines how you fare is whether you’re ready before the moment arrives.